Аннотация: This paper examines the necessity of economic sanctions through game theory and empirical analysis. Using a repeated sanctions game model, it predicts that credible deterrence arises from persistent sanctions. Statistical analyses (Cox PH and Kaplan-Meier) of the Global Sanctions Database reveal partial alignment: arms embargoes and travel bans exhibit prolonged durations, supporting deterrence.
However, repeated sanction rounds show no significant impact, and multilateral sanctions end faster than unilateral ones, highlighting unmodeled complexities. Divergences stem from asymmetric information, dynamic parameters, and multi-actor dynamics. The findings advocate refining theoretical models to incorporate sanction-type differentiation, coalition dynamics, and temporal adaptability for enhanced policy relevance.